BCDE 2026 La Paz, Bolivia
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Program

BCDE 2026 Conference Program

Complete agenda with keynotes, semi-plenary sessions, and parallel tracks.

Macro Micro & Development Keynote
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Day 1 — Tuesday, November 10

08:00–09:00

Registration

09:00–09:15

Opening Ceremony

Oscar Molina (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

09:15–10:15
Keynote

Keynote Lecture 1

Sergio Schmuckler (Banco Mundial)

10:15–10:30

Coffee break

10:30–12:00 1 h 30 min
Semi-Plenary Session

SDSN

Parallel Sessions
A1 · Fiscal Policy & Subsidies
When Population Counts: Intergovernmental Transfers and Local Fiscal Performance in Bolivia

Osmar Bolivar Rosales (Centro Boliviano de Economía - CAINCO)

Bridging the Wage Gap: The Fiscal and Economic Gains of Reducing Government Employment Inefficiencies

Alfredo Villca (Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo)

Efectos macro-sectoriales de la eliminación del subsidio implícito al gas para la generación eléctrica en Bolivia

Francisco Javier Aliaga Lordemann (Fundación INESAD)

A2 · Energy, Climate & Migration
Zero Energy Day: How Nationwide Blackouts Affect the Economy

Luis E. Gonzales (Central Bank of Chile)

Reaching the Vulnerable: Climate Agenda-Setting and the Composition of Multilateral Climate Finance

Pablo Neudörfer (Universidad de Talca)

Climate-Driven Migration and Labor Market Effects in Bolivia: An Instrumental Variables Approach

Rodrigo Mauricio Lopez Ergueta (University of Geneva)

A3 · Health and Behavior
Salud infantil y brechas de acceso después de la universalización sanitaria en Bolivia

Badia Machicado (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

Parental Altruism, the Samaritan's Dilemma, and the College Decision.

Agustin Diaz Casanueva (Central Bank of Chile)

Redesigning Peer Dynamics: A Behavioral Game Intervention to Reduce Bullying and Discrimination in Bolivian Schools

Lorena Andrea Heller Vilela (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

12:00–13:30

Lunch

13:30–15:00 1 h 30 min
Semi-Plenary Session

IDB

Competition

Parallel Sessions
B1 · Exchange-Rate Policy & Devaluation
Dollar Shortages and the Exit from a Peg

Pablo Cuba Borda (Federal Reserve Board)

Exchange-Rate Transition under Foreign-Exchange Scarcity: Text-Based Expectations and Bayesian Semi-Structural Evidence from Bolivia

Ronaldo Terrazas (SEBOL)

Foreign Exchange Rationing, Digital Dollar Access, and Regulatory Observability: Evidence from Bolivia

Jonathan Fortun (IIF)

B2 · Human Capital & Growth
Chantanomics: Quantity and Quality of Human Capital within a Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) Framework

Pablo Mendieta Ossio (Centro Boliviano de Economía - CAINCO)

Higher Education Accreditation and Labor Market Outcomes in Colombia

Ricardo Nogales (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

The Effect of Education on Sustainable Employment in Bolivia.

Ibhar Beramendi (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

B3 · Mining & Spatial Development
The Local Socioeconomic Impact of Bolivia's Largest Mine: Synthetic Control Evidence from the San Cristóbal Mine

Cloe Barbera (Geneva Graduate Institute)

Large-Scale Mining and Local Welfare: Household and Individual Evidence from Bolivia

Cloe Barbera (Geneva Graduate Institute)

Reorganización territorial de la migración interna reciente en Bolivia: evidencia municipal a partir de los censos de 2012 y 2024

Oriana Espejo Zacarias (SDSN Bolivia - UPB)

B4 · Sustainable Development
Women in Fish Farming: Uncovering the Mechanisms of Women's Leadership

Soraya Roman (Universidade Católica de Brasília)

Where Does the Money Go? Female Economic Visibility and the Gender Gap in Business-Oriented Financial Behavior

Maria Alejandra Villegas Gutierrez (Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de México)

Riesgos y restricciones presupuestarias en la adopción de tecnologías agrícolas sostenibles: quinua

Javier Aliaga (Fundación INESAD)

15:00–15:15

Coffee break

15:15–16:45 1 h 30 min
Semi-Plenary Session

AFD

Semi-Plenary Session

INESAD

Parallel Sessions
C1 · Parallel Dollar Markets & Digital Currency
La dinámica del precio del USDT en Bolivia ante episodios de incertidumbre interna, 2023–2026

Daniel Bohoz Oros Trujillo (Investigador independiente)

Persistence, Duration and Transition Dynamics Between Calm and Stress Regimes in Bolivia's Parallel Dollar Market (2024–2026): Evidence from a Markov-Switching Autoregressive Model

Walter Manuel Marañon Quiñones (Independent Researcher)

Foreign Exchange Rationing, Digital Settlement, and Fiscal Dominance.

Jonathan Fortun (IIF)

C2 · Trade, Firms & Business Informality
Free Trade and Strategic Firm Responses: Evidence from NAFTA and the U.S. Beer Market

Santiago Julián García Nava (Universidad de Chile)

The Other NiNis in Bolivia: The Heterogeneity of Business Informality

Pablo Mendieta Ossio (Centro Boliviano de Economía - CAINCO)

The Impact of Internet Speed on Poverty and Informality: Evidence from Brazil and Ecuador

Osmar Bolivar Rosales (Centro Boliviano de Economía - CAINCO)

C3 · Labor Markets & Informality
Informal employment in Bolivia at the municipal level for 2024: an approach using Machine Learning techniques

Isaias Nataniel Abraham Escobar Aliaga (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

Diminishing Returns to Formalization over the Life Cycle

Gunnar Poppe Yanez (Johns Hopkins University, Advanced Academic Programs, Washington, DC, USA)

Working hours policy reform: micro and macro impacts

Mauricio Tejada (Universidad Diego Portales)

16:45–17:00

Coffee break

17:00–18:30 1 h 30 min
Semi-Plenary Session

IDB

Labor Markets

Semi-Plenary Session

FONPLATA

Brisa Rejas

20:00–22:00

Conference Dinner (by invitation only)

Day 2 — Wednesday, November 11

08:30–09:00

Registration

09:00–10:30 1 h 30 min
Semi-Plenary Session

IDB

Subnational Issues

Semi-Plenary Session

BOWEN

Parallel Sessions
D1 · Banking, Credit & Firm Finance
Lessons from Bank Failures in Bolivia: Empirical Evidence on Early Warning Signals Prior to Collapse

Andres Gutierrez (Universidad Mayor de San Andrés)

The Impact of Reverse Factoring on MSMEs: Firm-level Evidence from Mexico

Jose Tesada (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

De facto devaluation and banking sector mission drift: Evidence from Bolivia

Mateo Linares Saavedra (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

D2 · AI & the Future of Work
Inteligencia artificial y re-configuración del mercado laboral: Un modelo basado en agentes (ABM)

Esteban Michel Herrera (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

Artificial Intelligence and Perceived Employability: Fear, Optimism, and Digital Preparedness in a Bolivian Higher Education

Pamela Cordova Olivera (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

Improving Emotional and Vocal Expression in Job Interview Simulations with an AI-Enhanced Chatbot for University Students

Alberto Grájeda Chacón (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

D3 · Poverty & Welfare Measurement
Multidimensional Poverty Measurement under Missing Data: A Framework for Selecting Imputation Strategies

Daniel Alejandro Revilla Cabrera (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

Menos pobreza, ¿para todos? Evidencia multidimensional y territorial de Bolivia, 2012 vs 2024

Marion Bruna Torrico Alejandro (SDSN Bolivia)

Medición del cambio en el bienestar de los hogares bolivianos ante la eliminación del subsidio a la gasolina: un enfoque de variación compensatoria

Jose Ignacio Lopez Tamayo (Universidad Católica Boliviana)

10:30–10:45

Coffee break

10:45–12:15
Keynote

Keynote Lecture 2

Andrea Repetto (Universidad Católica de Chile)

12:15–13:45

Lunch

13:45–15:15 1 h 30 min
Semi-Plenary Session

IDB

Gender

Parallel Sessions
E1 · Monetary Policy & Inflation Dynamics
Optimal Monetary Policy Under Higher Tariffs

Pablo Cuba Borda (Federal Reserve Board)

Shocks comunes, fricciones espaciales y conectividad de la inflación en Bolivia

Pablo Cachaga Herrera (Universidad Mayor de San Andres)

Nowcasting Inflation in Bolivia: Digital Sentiment and Currency Crisis

Elvis Vargas (Fundación Aru)

E2 · Education & Social Mobility
Unequal Opportunities? Intergenerational Educational Mobility across Municipalities in Bolivia and its Predictors

Juan Pablo Barrancos Rojas (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

Intergenerational Educational Mobility in Andean Countries: Gender and Ethnic Disparities – Extended Abstract

Ibhar Christian Beramendi Illanes (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

Determinantes de la satisfacción y lealtad institucional de los titulados en educación superior: un análisis de procesos mixtos condicionales

Raúl Rubin de Celis (Universidad Católica Boliviana)

E3 · Tourism & Urban Labor
Turismo internacional y mercados laborales urbanos en Bolivia

Esteban Michel Herrera (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

Cognitive Costs and Crime: How Street Network Topology Shapes Criminal Opportunity

Elvis Edison Choque Sanchez (Universidad Alberto Hurtado)

Smokers' Preferences for Tobacco Product Attributes in Licit and Illicit Markets: A Discrete Choice Experiment in Colombia and Bolivia

Joaquin Morales (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

15:15–15:30

Coffee break

15:30–17:00 1 h 30 min
Semi-Plenary Session

FES

Bolivia - Propuestas para un reordenamiento económico

Daniel Agramont y Solange Sardán

Semi-Plenary Session

ABCE

Parallel Sessions
F1 · Inflation Perception & Real Income
Inflation Perception and Digital Narratives in Bolivia: Construction of a Social Index (2023–2026)

Carlos Pantoja (Fundación Aru)

The Cost of Disruption: Inflation and Real Income in Bolivia

Ibhar Christian Beramendi Illanes (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

Equilibrio y desalineamientos del tipo de cambio nominal en Bolivia (1990-2024)

Beatriz Cristina Muriel Hernández (Fundación INESAD)

F2 · Forecasting & Spatial Methods
From Seasonality to Semantics: Benchmarking a Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting System for Roadblocks in Bolivia

Rodrigo Vargas Sainz (Universidad Privada de Santa Cruz de la Sierra)

Smog, Not Lights. Tracking Bolivia's 2024–2026 Recession from Space

Ahmed Eid Valdiviezo (Suyana Climate Insurance - AI Analytics)

Predicting and monitoring local development from outer space: Evidence from the Bolivian municipalities

Carlos Mendez (Nagoya Univeristy, Japan)

F3 · Conflict, Political Economy & Resilience
Vote counting dynamics and a real-time test to identify fraud: Presidential elections in the U.S., Peru, and Bolivia

Diego Escobari (The University of Texas RGV)

Free-Market Beliefs and the Intergenerational Transmission of Values

Antonio Saravia (Mercer University)

Más allá del número de protestas: violencia, interrupciones de movilidad y resiliencia del turismo receptor en Bolivia

Esteban Michel Herrera (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

17:00–17:15

Coffee break

17:15–18:45 1 h 30 min
Semi-Plenary Session

Plenary Special Session by IDB - LAC Crece

18:45–19:45

Farewell Cocktail